Tuesday, March 27, 2012

Predicting the Top Shot

Personally, I feel a little silly to make predictions about things that have already happened. 

Over the weekend the Top Shot Facebook page posed the question about who viewers thought was going to win the entire competition. Right now the show is at the half way point in terms of episodes, although not in terms of the actual competition.

With over 80 people responding,  the results are somewhat surprising. Now, I don't have exact numbers, because some people responded with more than one person they were rooting for, but here is a rough idea. 

Gabby Franco is by far the front runner of fan support, which I found surprising and encouraging. Franco hasn't really gotten as much screen time as some of her fellow red team members, which often can make or break the fan support. However, Top Shot viewers are not your average television viewer. They pay attention, and when people consistently perform, like Franco has been, they begin to garner a following. In addition people really seem anxious to have a female contestant win the whole thing.

Chee Kwan is in second, which again I find a little surprising because the guy has been sat for two out of six team challenges. I was talking to my friend Tony about this. He surmised that both red and blue know Chee can shoot, which is why he has had to ride the pine, but also why he has been kept out of eliminations. It's this idea that apparently fans are aware of as well.

Sitting in the middle of the pack are Chris Cheng, Augie Malekovich, and Terry Vaughan, which seems about right. I guess I'm a little surprised Vaughan and Cheng aren't sitting a little higher since both seem to have developed strong fan followings on Twitter and Facebook.

The dark horse this season seems to be William Bethards. I've been thinking Bethards has been flying under his team's radar this season and that it is eventually going to catch up with him. However, my opinion changed when I saw this video Bethards posted on his Twitter account last night.

The guy has some serious skill this competition has failed to emphasize. I'll be curious to see what happens tonight.

The only contestant to receive no votes was Dylan Fletcher. Now, I've made my feelings about Fletcher pretty clear, at least in terms of how he is, but that doesn't mean the guy can't shoot. He been a consistent shooter for blue, and has gotten a fair amount of screen time to help build up a fan base. I've criticized Fletcher for his enthusiasm to be in elimination challenges, but maybe I've been too hard on Fletcher. Maybe what he's saying isn't all that different from what Kwan was saying last week, he just wants a chance to prove himself.

The bottom line is this show isn't American Idol and it doesn't happen live. The contestant don't need to the fans to like them to keep them in the competition. 

Tune in tonight to see what happens. History has been touting that one of teams fall apart during the challenge, any guesses on who it will be? Will blue relapse to their losing ways, or will red continue to struggle after losing the heart of their team, Tim Trefren?

Top Tweets will be up later, recap tomorrow, and analysis on Friday.

Follow me on Twitter @cswiets

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